That is £2.1B across 2024/25, inside the £4bn the Home Office spent on asylum
support altogether. 40,168 people were awaiting an initial
decision at 30 Jun 2026.
£234total cost per income taxpayer per yearAccommodation and support, enforcement, border security, welfare after a decision, NHS, education, tribunals, legal aid. Range £212 to £257. Full breakdown.£8.0B total / 34.1M taxpayers.
£170per person per night in a hotel2024/25 average, the year the £5.77M daily figure covers. 16,021 people were in asylum hotels at 30 Jun 2026, down from 30,657 at the end of 2025.
£15.3Bforecast over 10 yearsNAO forecast. The 10-year asylum accommodation contract rose from £4.5B to £15.3B.
Total cost: Home Office Annual Report and Accounts 2025-26 for the audited departmental lines, published figures and stated estimates for the rest. Daily cost: House of Commons Library debate pack CDP-2025-0184, which states it verbatim (2024/25 average). Taxpayers: HMRC projected 2024-25. Per-night hotel rate: Migration Observatory, 2024/25, the same year as the daily cost. 10-year: NAO Investigation into Asylum Accommodation, Nov 2024.
93,293On asylum supportReceiving Home Office accommodation, subsistence, or both. As at 30 Jun 2026.40,168Awaiting an initial decisionAs at 30 Jun 2026. Cases lodged but not yet decided at first instance.15,897Small boat arrivals, 2026 so far1 January to 20 August 2026, against 27,997 at the same point in 2025, a fall of 43%. Home Office weekly series, updated Fridays. The year ending June 2026 total was 33,374, 88% of detected irregular entry.31.5%Initial grant rateAt first decision only, 2025 Q3 to 2026 Q2. After appeals the final grant rate is on average 14.6pp higher, across the 101 of 105 nationalities whose rate rises (Asy_D04).12,888Refugee family reunion grants Year ending June 2026, down 38% on Year ending June 2025 (20,643). 15Councils taking zero33 councils have rates above 30 per 10,000. 15 take none.
Hamilton-Perry model, Census-verified
The ONS does not project ethnic composition by local authority. This model does.
The ONS will not project ethnic composition at local authority level. So we built a model that does.
318 local authorities across England and Wales. Census 2011 and 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry CCR methodology.
1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Every ratio traced to Census observations.
White British share (population-weighted, 318 local authorities in model)
2011 Census80.2%
2021 Census74.4%
2051 projected55.1%
Census figures observed. 2051 projected by the Hamilton-Perry v8.0 model, which is tested one decade out of sample (MAE 1.56pp) and not beyond, so read 2051 as materially more uncertain than that error bar. The series stops at 2051 because 49 areas have no 2061 projection and they are not a random 49, so a 2061 bar would not be comparable with the ones above it. Full methodology
86areas White British under 50% by 2051
99areas White British under 50% by 2061
5areas projected Muslim majority by 2051
110areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051
Fastest transformation: White British % (2021 Census)
361 local authority profiles. Asylum numbers, demographic projections to 2061, hotel sites, crime, schools, your MP, your council. All sourced. All free.
Ten councils hold the highest asylum support rates per head
Ranked by people on asylum support per 10,000 residents, as at 30 Jun 2026. Areas with fewer than 200 supported are excluded. Select any area for the full profile.
Asylum support is spread unevenly across the regions
Regions are ranked by the number of people on asylum support. The rate per 10,000 residents is the comparable
measure, and it varies several times over between the highest and lowest regions.
We track the fiscal bill here. Over on ukdemographics.co.uk we track
who this country is becoming. 320 local authorities, ethnic projections to 2061,
schools, housing and health demand. Same government data. Two lenses. Follow both.
White British share (population-weighted, 318 local authorities)
201180.2%
202174.4%
205155.1%
74.4 → 55.0%White British share, 2021 → 2051Hamilton-Perry v8.0, population-weighted across 318 local authorities. Out-of-sample MAE 1.56pp