Home Office asylum spending

£5.77M per day. YOUR money. Exposed.

The asylum backlog costs every UK taxpayer an estimated £62 per year. 64,426 people waiting for a decision that never comes. £15.3B committed. Nobody asked you.

Source: Home Office asylum accommodation factsheet →

What we found

ANALYSIS 89.7% Albanian asylum seekers don't change ethnic minority statistics — 90% identify as White Read more → ANALYSIS 319K Arab population projected to triple in 20 councils by 2051 — a group no model has tracked before Read more → FINDING 1.31 White British fertility has fallen to 1.31 — lower than any demographic model assumed Read more →

All 15 findings →

£155+ minimum total cost per taxpayer per year Hotels, processing, local authority, border ops, NHS, education, enforcement, tribunals, subsistence, legal aid. Central estimate: £169. Full breakdown. £5.3B-£6.3B total / 34.1M taxpayers. Hotels alone = £62.

£68,620 per hotel resident per year £188/night. 30,657 people in asylum hotels at 31 Dec 2025.

£15.3B forecast over 10 years NAO forecast. The 10-year asylum accommodation contract rose from £4.5B to £15.3B.

Daily cost: Home Office factsheet (2024/25 average). Taxpayers: HMRC projected 2024-25. Per-resident: daily average / Q4 2025 hotel count (time periods differ). 10-year: NAO Investigation into Asylum Accommodation, Nov 2024.

The system in numbers

Updated 31 Dec 2025 · Home Office

107,003 On asylum support Fed, housed, and supported by the taxpayer. As at 31 Dec 2025.

64,426 Awaiting a decision Waiting. Costing. Every single day.

41,472 Illegal boat crossings Up 12.6% year on year. 89% of detected illegal entry routes.

34.3% Initial grant rate At first decision only. After appeals, true grant rate is on average 14pp higher (Asy_D04, Dec 2025).

18,869 Family reunion visas Up 153% since 2019 (pre-COVID). Every grant generates dependants.

22 Councils taking zero 48 councils have rates above 30 per 10,000. 22 take none.

Hamilton-Perry model, Census-verified

The demographic transformation nobody will publish

The ONS will not project ethnic composition at local authority level. So we built a model that does. 316 local authorities. Census 2011 and 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry CCR methodology. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Every ratio traced to Census observations.

White British share (population-weighted, 301 local authorities in model)

2011 Census 80.5%

2021 Census 73.3%

2051 projected 48.7%

2061 illustrative 40.2%

Census figures observed. 2051/2061 projected by Hamilton-Perry CCR model. 2061 is illustrative only. Full methodology

86 areas White British under 50% by 2051

106 areas White British under 50% by 2061

5 areas projected Muslim majority by 2051

110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051

Fastest transformation: White British % (2021 Census)

Sandwell 52% Reading 53% Oxford 53% Kingston upon Thames 54% Cambridge 53% Coventry 55% Wolverhampton 55% Sutton 57% Blackburn with Darwen 57% Nottingham 57%

See the findings National demographic outlook Methodology

Explore the data

What does YOUR area look like in 2051?

361 local authority profiles. Asylum numbers, demographic projections to 2061, hotel sites, crime, schools, your MP, your council. All sourced. All free.

Browse all 361 areas →

Where they are being placed

The councils carrying the heaviest load per head of population. Click any area for the full picture.

Area Per 10k Total

1 Hillingdon 64.8 2,133 2 Glasgow City 59.0 3,835 3 Hounslow 57.4 1,720 4 Belfast 49.6 1,749 5 Nottingham 48.5 1,605 6 Hyndburn 48.2 415 7 Stoke-on-Trent 47.3 1,279 8 Wolverhampton 46.9 1,318 9 Blackburn with Darwen 46.7 759 10 Coventry 46.6 1,719

See all 361 areas →

Regional breakdown

The system is not fair. Some regions carry five times the load of others. Nobody voted for that.

North West 20,864 27.0 per 10,000 London 16,378 18.0 per 10,000 West Midlands 13,499 21.8 per 10,000 Yorkshire and The Humber 9,748 17.2 per 10,000 East Midlands 7,829 15.5 per 10,000 South East 7,472 7.8 per 10,000

The routes into Britain

Small boats. Visa overstayers. Resettlement schemes. The government counts them separately. So do we.

Safe and legal (humanitarian) grants 189,823 2025

Small boat arrivals 41,472 2025

Supported asylum population 107,003 2025-12-31

Afghan Resettlement Programme arrivals 5,874 2025

UK Resettlement Scheme and predecessor schemes 543 2025

Community Sponsorship arrivals 12 2025

Full route analysis →

Sister site · ukdemographics.co.uk

The demographic shift behind every asylum number

We track the fiscal bill here. Over on ukdemographics.co.uk we track who this country is becoming — 320 local authorities, ethnic projections to 2061, schools, housing and health demand. Same government data. Two lenses. Follow both.

White British share (population-weighted, England)

2011 80.5%

2021 73.3%

2051 48.7%

2061 40.2%

73.3 → 48.7% White British share, 2021 → 2051 Hamilton–Perry CCR model, 1,000 Monte Carlo sims, MAE 1.72pp

86 local authorities below 50% by 2051

110 projected foreign-born majority by 2051

5 projected Muslim majority by 2051

See the full demographic outlook → ukdemographics.co.uk How the model works →

Every number sourced. Every source linked.

No spin. No hedging. Just data. Click any figure and trace it back to the government's own publications. Then decide for yourself.

Look up your area Read the findings Check the sources